MLB Trends: Julio Rodríguez Cuts Strikeouts

The first quarter of the 2025 MLB season is behind us, and things are starting to look normal again. Only Aaron Judge is hitting above .400 among qualified batters, and just a handful of starting pitchers have ERAs under 2.00.

Teams that stumbled out of the gate are finding their rhythm, while early-season surprises are coming back down to earth.

Here are three trends worth watching as we head into mid-May.

Julio finally figured out how to stop striking out

Mariners star Julio Rodríguez did something last Saturday he hadn’t done once in May: he struck out.

Rodríguez went eight games and 35 straight plate appearances without a strikeout to begin the month. Before this impressive run, he’d never gone more than three consecutive games without whiffing.

"The big thing is he has got good rhythm in his hands, but sometimes it’s too much," explained Mariners hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. "It’s quieted down immensely. When I saw where he was then compared to now it’s put him in a much better position, so there is a lot better timing and a lot fewer misses as far as swinging at pitches in the zone."

Rodríguez, still only 24, has cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 20.3%.

That’s actually better than the MLB average of 22.0% this year, and way down from his 25% range during 2022-24.

The key change? Making more contact on pitches in the strike zone. By quieting his hands, Julio is missing far fewer hittable pitches.

His in-zone contact rate hovered around 80% in previous seasons. Lately it’s closer to 85%, which is roughly league average. More contact in the zone means fewer strikeouts, and since Julio crushes the ball when he connects, those extra balls in play are turning into serious damage.

He’s hitting .289/.333/.489 in May after struggling with a .207/.309/.372 line in April.

Being an aggressive hitter who chases pitches out of the zone, strikeouts will always be part of Rodríguez’s game. He’s not suddenly turning into Steven Kwan. But with his ability to hit the ball hard, dropping his strikeout rate from 25% to 20% makes a huge difference for both him and the Mariners.

Julio’s raw talent has always been obvious, but it’s easy to forget he’s still developing. This simple mechanical adjustment with his hands might be helping him take another step toward becoming a true superstar.

The Yankees suddenly can’t throw hard

Despite being known as the Bronx Bombers, the Yankees have actually been excellent at preventing runs in recent years. From 2021-24, they ranked fifth in ERA (3.70), sixth in runs allowed per game (4.02), and fifth in pitching WAR (71.9).

Not coincidentally, they also threw some serious heat during that stretch.

Velocity isn’t everything, but it gives pitchers more room for error. The faster the pitch, the less time hitters have to react or adjust to breaking balls. It’s a huge advantage.

But this season, the Yankees have gone from being one of the hardest-throwing teams to one of the softest. Here’s where they’ve ranked in average fastball velocity:

2021: 2nd (four-seamer), 3rd (sinker)
2022: 1st (four-seamer), 1st (sinker)
2023: 4th (four-seamer), 5th (sinker)
2024: 6th (four-seamer), 23rd (sinker)
2025: 27th (four-seamer), 30th (sinker)

The sinker decline began last year when they added soft-tosser Marcus Stroman to the rotation and sidearming lefty Tim Hill to the bullpen. The bigger velocity drop this year comes partly from Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (lat strain) combining for zero pitches. They were both top-20 starters in fastball velocity last year.

The lack of heat is especially noticeable in the bullpen. The hardest pitch thrown by a Yankees reliever this season is just 96.9 mph from Yerry De Los Santos this past weekend.

The Yankees haven’t had a single reliever throw a legitimate 97 mph fastball all year. Every other team has gotten at least a 98.0 mph pitch from their bullpen. Twenty-three teams have seen 99.0 mph, and 18 have hit 100.0 mph. The Yankees are several ticks below that.

Surprisingly, the lack of velocity hasn’t hurt them too badly yet. They’re ninth in ERA (3.66), 11th in runs allowed per game (3.98), and 11th in pitching WAR (4.9).

They’re not elite at preventing runs anymore, but they’re still above average—pretty good considering they’re missing Cole and Gil, plus closer Devin Williams has struggled. Things could have gone much worse for baseball’s new soft-tossers.

Nootbaar setting the tone for red-hot Cardinals

With 11 wins in their last 13 games, the Cardinals have suddenly thrust themselves into the NL Central race, even though there’s still a long way to go.

Their pitching has improved dramatically, especially the bullpen, and the offense has scored at least five runs in eight of those 11 wins.

Leading the charge is 2023 World Baseball Classic champion Lars Nootbaar, who’s batted leadoff in 40 of the team’s 42 games. He’s hitting .250/.372/.419 with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28) this season.

But it’s his numbers leading off games that are truly remarkable:

Batting average: .286 (MLB average: .273)
On-base percentage: .500 (MLB average: .339)
Slugging percentage: .571 (MLB average: .480)

Nootbaar has reached base 20 times in 40 plate appearances to begin a game—eight hits (including two leadoff homers) and 12 walks. His 20 times on base to start games leads MLB, ahead of Francisco Lindor’s 18 (in more opportunities).

Those 12 leadoff walks are particularly impressive. Only 45 players have drawn at least 20 walks to begin games in a single season since 1961. The modern record is 28 leadoff walks by Willie Randolph with the 1980 Yankees. Nootbaar is on pace to shatter that mark.

"The guys joke with me about the leadoff walks record, but as a leadoff hitter, I still have that old school mentality of seeing some pitches," Nootbaar said last month. "There are times when I can jump on a pitch. But coming from an old school baseball family, that’s what you do and that’s seeing a lot of pitches as a leadoff hitter."

Here’s the strange part: St. Louis has done a terrible job capitalizing on Nootbaar’s success. Despite him reaching base half the time to begin games, the Cardinals have scored only 14 first-inning runs this year—second fewest in baseball, ahead of only the Astros (eight).

They’ve scored multiple first-inning runs just twice all season. Both times Nootbaar drew a leadoff walk, then Willson Contreras delivered a multi-run extra-base hit.

Nootbaar is clearly holding up his end of the bargain with his incredible leadoff performance. Now it’s on the rest of the Cardinals to cash in those opportunities. First-inning runs change games by forcing opponents to play catch-up immediately.

His ability to get on base has been a major reason St. Louis has climbed back into contention over the past few weeks.