Happy Friday, baseball fans! Friday means it’s time for another round of betting picks, and I’ve got some interesting ones lined up for you today.
We’ve got 15 games tonight (plus one daytime matchup with some very hitter-friendly weather – more on that later).
## Corbin Burnes to record win (-130)
Let’s face it – the Rockies are on track to be historically bad this season. They’re a pitiful 2-20 away from Coors Field, so betting against them on the road is practically printing money.
The moneyline is way too juiced at -395, and even the run line is steep at -1.5 (-198). So let’s go a bit deeper and back Burnes to get the win.
He’s won his last two starts against much tougher competition (the Mets and Dodgers). The Diamondbacks just need to have the lead when Burnes leaves the game and not blow it. Against these Road Rockies? Not a problem.
## MacKenzie Gore over 6.5 K (-125)
The Orioles are absolutely terrible against lefties this year. Dead last in MLB with a .179 batting average and a .511 OPS against southpaws. And guess what? The Nationals are starting lefty MacKenzie Gore.
Gore leads the majors with 75 strikeouts in 52â…” innings, averaging 8.33 Ks per start. His strikeout rate stays consistent whether he’s at home or on the road (12.8 K/9 at home vs. 12.9 K/9 away).
He already faced the Orioles on April 24 and struck out eight. He’s gone over 6.5 strikeouts in seven of his nine starts this season.
The only worry here is that it seems too easy. Why isn’t the line higher?
But it’s not fishy enough to scare me away. Gore should easily get to seven strikeouts against this struggling Orioles lineup.
## Home run play(s): Grab your Chicago players
Wrigley Field is famous for its split personality. Cold with wind blowing in? Extreme pitcher’s park. Warm with wind blowing out? Absolute slugfest – like when the Cubs and D-backs recently combined for 21 runs in just 1.5 innings.
Friday’s forecast for Chicago: 82 degrees with 18 mph winds blowing straight out to left field at game time (1:20 local). Those conditions will hold throughout the game, with temperatures in the 80s and winds 18-19 mph.
The White Sox are sending Shane Smith to the mound. While he’s only allowed one homer this season, he gives up fly balls 29.4% of the time – and fly balls are deadly on days like this. The Cubs counter with rookie Cade Horton, who already gave up a three-run shot to Brett Baty in his MLB debut last Saturday. Both bullpens will get involved too, and neither is good.
This is the perfect day to use those free home run plays you’ve been saving up.
Right-handed batters like Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Luis Robert, Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn, Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya are good bets. Lefties Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker are solid options too.
If I had to pick just one, I’d go with Swanson (+295). He’s hit five homers in his last 15 games and performs better at home.
For a longer shot, Nico Hoerner hasn’t homered yet this season, but he’s hit some deep flies at Wrigley recently. The weather sets up perfectly for his first homer, and he’s available at a juicy +1000.
## Futures play: Aaron Judge to hit .400+ (+7500)
No, I don’t actually think Aaron Judge will hit .400 this season.
But did you know he hit .357 in his last 124 games last year and is hitting .412 so far this season? That gives him a .373 average over his last 167 games. Not that far off from .400.
Watching him hit right now, it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. Plus, he’ll likely start walking more as we get into summer when teams don’t want to watch him launch homers against them.
The best part? There’s no playing time requirement on this bet. If he’s hitting over .400 and gets injured, you still win.
Again, I don’t think Judge will hit .400, but at +7500 odds, why not throw $10 at it? It’s not quite Kevin Malone’s “John Mellencamp wins an Oscar” 10,000-to-1 bet from The Office, but 750-1 odds seem worth a small wager.
